Logical Fallacy: Correlation Does Not Imply Causation

Here are several examples of people trying to use the logical fallacy of Correlation and Causation which is loosely defined as follows: Just because two events occur together does not mean that one caused the other. Or just because two variables have a connection does not automatically imply that one causes the other.

1. From a creationist website:

1. “All crime is a result of sin, and of course there was crime before Charles Darwin promoted evolution, but as the theory increased so did the crime rate. Today Creation is not taught, even as a theory, in our schools, therefore children have nothing to base their morality upon. As God has been removed from the classroom, so all kinds of evil has multiplied on our streets. Remove the Bible and you take away the conscience of the nation. Evolution has absolutely nothing to offer with regards to morality, no wonder then that our leaders have no answer to societies problems.”

In fact crime rates have been going down in recent years. Other western nations teach evolution, and they have lower crime rates than the US. Historically the south is the most anti-evolution of geographic regions. The south also has the highest crime rate of any region in the US.

• Crime statistics by country
• Crime reporting in the US (pdf: see pages 9 and 10, especially)

2. This example comes from a “paper” that supposedly showed that global warming wasn’t occurring.

“What better measures of human health and welfare are there? In fact, there is no better way to obtain a good picture of how human health and welfare may trend in the future under increases in greenhouse gas emissions than to assess how we have fared in the past during a period of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.”

Just because there were more greenhouse gases in the 20th century than during past centuries, and human welfare increased during the 20th century, it doesn’t mean the two are somehow connected.

3. This final example comes from a conversation with someone on the Internet. (csiop.org)

“More precisely, causation causes correlation. The “vaccine” as a cause of autism and other sicknesses is not in serious dispute, outside the Big Government agencies whose mission is to force folks to cooperate and the “medical” industry whose sole concern is the enormous profits they make by ensuring and prolonging sickness.”

Even if autism rates have risen since vaccinations were first issued, it doesn’t mean that the two are connected. Remember, correlation doesn’t imply causation. There are many reasons as to why the reported cases of autism are increasing. First of all, it is being recognized as a real condition. In earlier times people who would now be considered autistic were diagnosed with something else or not diagnosed at all. Secondly, the criteria for autism has expanded to included those mildly autistic to those who are severely retarded. That would be like lowering the criteria for tall from 6′ to 5′ 9″ and suddenly worrying about where all the tall people suddenly came from. Thirdly, vaccinations are usually given at around the age that autism is normally diagnosed. All these must be taken into consideration.

If autism and vaccines are connected then a connection should be found. In 1992 Denmark and Sweden removed thimerosal from vaccines. If they were causing autism, then the rates of cases should drop. Instead they continued to rise. In 2002 the US removed thimerosal, and autism rates have continued to climb. Japan even stopped giving out the MMR vaccine, which contains thimerosal, at about the same time and their autism rates continued to rise. A Japanese study also found that there are no significant rates of autism between vaccinated and unvaccinated children.

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Presented by Gerald: This is a series on Logic, Logical Thinking and Dealing with Logical Fallacies in an Argument based on the theme of our Sept. 13 meeting.

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